As the dust settles after Operation Sindoor, here’s an early assessment of not just of what India did, but why it did so, under what constraints, and with what results. In many ways, Operation Sindoor may prove to be a turning point in India’s approach to Pakistan’s decades-long proxy war. It was a limited military operation with disproportionate strategic value—achieving deterrence, demonstrating capability, and avoiding the trap of escalation.
Aims and Constraints
The core aim of Operation Sindoor was not territorial conquest or all-out war—it was to raise the cost of state-sponsored terrorism for Pakistan. After years of restraint, diplomatic démarches, and two minor cross border operations, India decided that greater but calibrated force was necessary to impose consequences. The operation possibly aimed to Inflict damage on terrorist infrastructure and deter future attacks. It would need to do so while minimising casualties to Indian forces and civilians on both sides and preventing the conflict from spiralling beyond the nuclear threshold. This was a high-stakes balancing act—militarily forceful, but strategically restrained.
Why Not War?
A full-scale war may appeal to public sentiment, but it is rarely a wise course in today’s geopolitical reality. War without a clear and achievable political end-state becomes an exercise in attrition. What would we have aimed to achieve? The capture of territory? Regime change? Balkanisation of Pakistan?
Even the global superpowers have learned the limits of military power:
• The United States, despite overwhelming superiority, could not achieve lasting stability in Iraq or Afghanistan, even though its mainland was untouched.
• Russia, with its ongoing war in Ukraine, has paid a massive economic and human cost while failing to secure a decisive outcome.
India, unlike them, faces a nuclear-armed neighbour with a fragile internal structure and a proven willingness to escalate unpredictably. Any action had to factor in this calculus.
The 1971 Comparison—and its Limits
Some have drawn parallels to the 1971 war. But the analogy is misleading. Then, India had a humanitarian and moral cause and a clear objective for an all out war —Bangladesh was in the throes of genocide and the world sympathised. The situation in Balochistan today, while serious, lacks the political unity, popular mobilisation, and international attention that East Pakistan commanded in 1971.
Moreover, even in 1971, India did not achieve all its objectives—notably, the recovery of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. And the economic aftershocks of that war were severe, contributing to the internal instability that culminated in the Emergency of 1975.
What Did Operation Sindoor Achieve?
India achieved far more than it may appear at first glance:
• Significant tactical success in degrading terrorist infrastructure.
• Psychological blow to Pakistan’s military and political leadership—raising doubts about their credibility at home.
• Tested military readiness and inter-agency coordination in real conditions.
• Raised the threshold for future retaliation—calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff yet again.
• Minimum casualties, and no loss of moral standing in the international arena.
• International pressure maintained through forums like FATF, and scope to increase water and trade pressure remains open.
Importantly, India maintained strategic autonomy: it responded on its terms, chose when to stop, and didn’t yield an inch on core positions.
The Ceasefire: Strategic Pause, Not Capitulation
Some argue that halting operations squandered momentum. But this ignores a key fact: restraint is not weakness when it follows successful action. By pausing after signalling capability and will, India preserved its diplomatic capital and avoided unnecessary costs. More importantly, it retained the option to strike again—politically, economically, or militarily—if provoked.
A limited victory in one battle does not end a war, but it shapes how the next one begins. India has changed the rules of engagement and made it clear that there is a price to pay for every misadventure across the border.
Conclusion
Operation Sindoor was not a grand spectacle like 1971, nor was it meant to be. It was a precise, disciplined use of force designed to alter behaviour without triggering catastrophe. India has shown it can act decisively, yet responsibly. The war on terrorism is far from over—but in this round, India has come out on top.
Excellent analysis Rohit. Thanks for an enlightening read.
Ron
Rohit, you’ve brilliantly dissected Op Sindoor, offering a nuanced analysis of India’s strategic motivations, constraints, and outcomes, masterfully balancing military insights with geopolitical realities, highlighting success in deterring terrorism while avoiding escalation. The comparison to past conflicts l enriches the narrative, making it a compelling and insightful read on India’s evolving approach to security.
Very well articulated and summarised .Super analysis
A very well analysed and articulated article. I would additionally say that India has achieved all of the same without a major effect on its economic growth as well as a dent on its attractiveness of foreign manufacturing and capital investment, a major feat considering that the adversary had nothing to lose in that area.
A well thought out analysis. I would add that it also provided the citizens, the administration and the services – a glimpse on the rigours of full blown conflict, the actions that need to follow and a continuous focus on information war that is raging around us 24 × 7
Absolutely bang on target……
Good analysis. You have actually summarised the whole thing beautifully .
Very well articulated friend
Great analysis Rohit.. makes a lot of sense.. while some might opine that we should have done much more, but the logic shared by you sounds more pragmatic.
Sir , very precise & bang on target analysis..
Your analysis is as precise as the Operation itself making it a 90 hours operation to bring Pakistan to negotiation table.
It tested our make in India weaponry in a live operation and two points shall help us in next operation:
We broke Water Treaty and can use water as a weapon anytime we want without declaring war.
Any other major terrorist strike on India wil be treated as act of war so Pakistan has to now think twice before taking on such adventures.
Well articulated Rohit
Bang on.. very well articulated , Rohit
A very informative analysis
As always a top class honest and balanced analysis.
Rohit you have laid it thread bare. Three cheers. Salutes
Must add that the bureaucracy has also hopefully realised that stupid cuts price very costly.
The defence budget needs to be minimum doubled…it’s the needful of the future.
Agniveers are good but ethical hackers and the humongous talent of the IT wiz kids needs to be tapped hired and given a focused channelised path.
It’s clear the future wars shall be surely not conventional wars.
Foot of land shall always be priceless but victories shall be crafted in space.
Super write up rohit. Very educative and very informative.
Plan goa.
Rohit, a very well brought out Analysis of Op Sindoor. India has reacted in a very calibrated manner with a very clear aim and message to our Adversary that punitive action will be taken in anywhere on ground of our choosing in case of any Ceasefire violation. Thanks for covering thOp Sindoor very concisely and in a pragmatic manner
Op Sindoor is the playbook for orchestration of Non Contact Warfare where Kinetic and Non Kinetic methods will be used for escalation management. Winning each escalation ladder is important than ultimate victory
As always Bullseye. Excellent analysis Rohit. Proud of you
My thoughts exactly Agro!!
Op Sindoor achieved it’s goal with the terror camp strikes !!
The message was delivered loud and clear
Prolonged engagements will only strengthen India’s resolve and global stature
So it’s a win win for us either ways
Very well articulated . Gave me new insights on the whole operation. Kudos to yoi
Superb Analysis sir, you have brilliantly summed up the Operation..
An excellent analysis of Op Sindoor at this stage. More details will get revealed gradually. Very educative and informative.
A well researched article. In addition to the comments above, this operation provided for space for an assessment of new weaponry yet untested fully in battle, on both sides, and equipment manufacturers revewing their products and refining them, as also seeking new markets for them.
A very good analysis of the situation given the fog of war existing and details yet to emerge
Very precise analysis, Rohit.
Very well analysed .
Good Analysis. Precise and accurate under present conditions.
Dear Rohit an excellent and well balanced article.In addition to capability the Indian state needs to enhance its perception management and narrative building capability.We have moral high ground but the world also needs to know.We have to discredit the rogue Army of Pakistan in front of there Awaam.
Spot on Rohit. As expected, a well analyzed assessment. However, we should have landed a few more punches, before the referee stepped in. Should have taken out AWACS and C 130 and other high cost hardware. I don’t know if we lost the perception war, but surely could have been more belligerent. The earthquake, if true, must have shaken all those who eye the nukes. Very timely and informative, as always.
A very lucid and logical analysis of Op Sindhoor!
Very well articulated, precise and bang on target.